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+$2,918Yes · avg 3.9¢ → 5.2¢ · $11.3k+$268Yes · avg 7.9¢ → 16¢ · $518−$94Yes · avg 24¢ → 17¢ · $206
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -66.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-66.7 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$41.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±47.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$16.2k
Last 30 days −$2,310 · $1.13M volume · 764 trades · since Mar 31, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$16.3k
Open P&L · 12 positions
−$703
Closed-position win rate
55%
40 closed
Wallet age · markets
207d
48 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -66.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $22.0k | missed |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.5¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x45b6c0…