notgoodluck

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did +25.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Sporting CP win on 2026-10-25?−$100Yes · avg 80¢ → 80¢ · $15.9k Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-26?+$41Yes · avg 72¢ → 72¢ · $5,323 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$125No · avg 70¢ → 72¢ · $3,625 · 1 proven with, 0 against Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?+$590Yes · avg 60¢ → 84¢ · $2,095 Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?−$2,047Yes · avg 37¢ → 6.5¢ · $436

Price-adjusted edge

+25.0 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

1.5

Flagged volume

$75.3k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±30.5 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$117.7k

Last 30 days +$42.4k · $5.03M volume · 7,256 trades · since Oct 16, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$124.2k

Open P&L · 7 positions

+$6,560

Closed-position win rate

60%

397 closed

Wallet age · markets

373d

399 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	2	2	1.5	+25.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Bucks vs. Wizards	MED BUY Wizards @ 44¢	$35.2k 2.4× usual	44%	2d ago	excluded
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢	$11.8k	79%	36d ago	called
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢	$10.7k	71%	38d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢	$17.6k	88%	38d ago	excluded

Bucks vs. Wizardsexcluded

BUY Wizards @ 44¢$35.2k

MED notgoodluck · 2d ago

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?called

BUY Yes @ 79¢$11.8k

LOW notgoodluck · 36d ago

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?called

BUY Yes @ 71¢$10.7k

LOW notgoodluck · 38d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 88¢$17.6k

LOW notgoodluck · 38d ago

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