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+$895No · avg 86¢ → 96.5¢ · $8,488+$1,000No · avg 85¢ → 97.6¢ · $7,954+$264No · avg 92.4¢ → 97.5¢ · $5,008+$275No · avg 86¢ → 98.2¢ · $2,169+$113No · avg 12¢ → 12¢ · $1,711+$101No · avg 84¢ → 90.5¢ · $1,443+$25Yes · avg 12¢ → 12¢ · $625−$30No · avg 8.1¢ → 7.5¢ · $384
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did +6.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+6.3 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$118.8k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$39.5k
Last 30 days +$3,511 · $1.76M volume · 2,444 trades · since Mar 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$36.4k
Open P&L · 14 positions
+$4,353
Closed-position win rate
75%
202 closed
Wallet age · markets
223d
190 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 2 | 1.7 | +6.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL No @ 94.3¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $12.5k | called |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $13.8k | missed |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 81¢ | $12.2k | called |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $14.0k | missed |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $18.9k | missed |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 94¢ | $17.9k | missed |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $18.8k | called |
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