← Wallets
−$1,286Yes · avg 24¢ → 3.5¢ · $216+$24Yes · avg 3.6¢ → 5.9¢ · $62
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -66.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-66.7 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$82.2k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±47.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$5,845
Last 30 days +$1,647 · $2.16M volume · 1,790 trades · since Oct 08, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$214.4k
Open P&L · 178 positions
−$210.1k
Closed-position win rate
86%
112 closed
Wallet age · markets
746d
282 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -66.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | LOW BUY No @ 67¢ | $22.7k | missed |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 85¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? | LOW SELL No @ 97¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | LOW SELL No @ 97.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | LOW BUY No @ 60¢ | $12.4k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4124b6…