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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did +41.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+41.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$43.3k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$101.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.69M volume · 862 trades · since Jan 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$120.7k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$29.9k
Closed-position win rate
100%
7 closed
Wallet age · markets
292d
11 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +41.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 22¢ | $10.8k | called |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢ | $11.3k | missed |
 Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 1.8¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $10.5k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x410338…