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What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$85.3k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$3,918
Last 30 days +$117 · $578.0k volume · 367 trades · since Jul 31, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$4,505
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$580
Closed-position win rate
72%
65 closed
Wallet age · markets
450d
65 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 97.3¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ | $11.3k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $10.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $18.6k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $20.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x40a24c…