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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did +39.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+39.7 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$47.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±48.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$4,228
Last 30 days +$0 · $140.3k volume · 6 trades · since Jul 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$14.2k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$9,713
Closed-position win rate
67%
3 closed
Wallet age · markets
105d
5 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +39.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $21.3k | called |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL Yes @ 30¢ | $10.9k | called |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $15.2k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x3ebbec…