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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.0 wins, so it did -4.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-4.9 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$23.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$22.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $7.19M volume · 251 trades · since Jan 16, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$22.8k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
0%
6 closed
Wallet age · markets
281d
6 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -4.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 4.9¢ | $11.0k | missed |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 0.4¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x3cd48e…