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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.6 wins, so it did +22.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +17.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+22.7 pts
Called / graded
5/6
Expected from price
3.6
Flagged volume
$66.1k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$19k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) at 51¢) and the edge is +17.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
100% vs 57% · n=3
60–80¢
67% vs 64% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$45.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $612.1k volume · 72 trades · since Dec 07, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$27.1k
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$71.8k
Closed-position win rate
81%
16 closed
Wallet age · markets
321d
24 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 5 | 3.6 | +22.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 60¢ | $10.1k | called |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 60¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 64¢ | $10.3k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $10.2k | called |
 Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 51¢ | $10.2k | called |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 69¢ | $10.3k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x3cd248…