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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +6.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+6.8 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$118.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$9,792
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.94M volume · 8,338 trades · since Jan 09, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$154.8k
Open P&L · 246 positions
−$144.0k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
288d
1085 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +6.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $38.2k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | LOW BUY Yes @ 93.2¢ | $17.5k | called |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW SELL Seahawks @ 99.9¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Seahawks @ 91.8¢ | $34.4k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x3c5b20…