← Wallets
+$32.5kYes · avg 50¢ → 91.5¢ · $72.0k+$278No · avg 92¢ → 94.5¢ · $10.5k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$91No · avg 96¢ → 97.1¢ · $7,823−$32.4kNo · avg 50¢ → 8.5¢ · $6,646+$48No · avg 96.3¢ → 97.7¢ · $3,604+$2No · avg 95.2¢ → 95.5¢ · $638+$7No · avg 93.1¢ → 96.8¢ · $189
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$287.7k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$38.6k
Last 30 days +$148 · $2.33M volume · 3,325 trades · since Dec 20, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$31.9k
Open P&L · 8 positions
+$510
Closed-position win rate
49%
102 closed
Wallet age · markets
308d
179 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ | $44.1k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $42.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $73.7k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $25.6k | excluded |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ | $16.3k | excluded |
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