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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did -29.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-29.8 pts
Called / graded
0/5
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$90.6k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$91k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 5¢) and the edge is -36.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 6% · n=2
20–40¢
0% vs 30% · n=2
60–80¢
0% vs 79% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$15.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.22M volume · 17 trades · since Aug 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$41.7k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$55.8k
Closed-position win rate
50%
4 closed
Wallet age · markets
813d
7 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 0 | 1.5 | -29.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 38¢ | $30.0k | missed |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 21¢ | $19.7k | missed |
 Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 5.7¢ | $10.8k | missed |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 21¢ | $15.0k | missed |
 Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 5.3¢ | $15.0k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x3aba48…