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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -33.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-33.3 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$233.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±47.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$101.4k
Last 30 days −$2,739 · $1.49M volume · 968 trades · since Feb 28, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$103.8k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$2,398
Closed-position win rate
39%
54 closed
Wallet age · markets
238d
54 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -33.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $52.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $20.9k | excluded |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $53.5k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢ | $32.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $37.3k | missed |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 33¢ | $16.7k | missed |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 96¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
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