← Wallets
+$9,321Yes · avg 39¢ → 71¢ · $20.8k+$3,173No · avg 53¢ → 78¢ · $10.1k+$7,237Yes · avg 11¢ → 46¢ · $9,518+$1,283No · avg 30¢ → 35¢ · $9,180−$564Yes · avg 36¢ → 32¢ · $5,236−$5,006Yes · avg 17¢ → 7.5¢ · $4,049−$3,543No · avg 16¢ → 8.5¢ · $3,980+$537Yes · avg 30¢ → 36¢ · $3,664
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +5.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+5.6 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$220.5k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$40.6k
Last 30 days +$25.4k · $23.67M volume · 158,141 trades · since Apr 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.35M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$487.6k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
924d
5733 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +8.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees | LOW BUY Tampa Bay Rays @ 70¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
 Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 88¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 89¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 96¢ | $22.0k | excluded |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.9¢ | $16.9k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 89¢ | $17.7k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | $49.8k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 98.3¢ | $49.1k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | LOW BUY No @ 91.8¢ | $14.6k | called |
 Trump out as President by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 97¢ | $10.4k | called |
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