0x3814…17bc

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?+$8,538Yes · avg 13¢ → 73¢ · $10.4k Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?+$1,660Yes · avg 69¢ → 82¢ · $10.4k Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?+$880Yes · avg 55¢ → 71¢ · $4,021 Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?+$292No · avg 57¢ → 89¢ · $803 Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?+$9Yes · avg 54¢ → 55¢ · $735 Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?−$166Yes · avg 21¢ → 12¢ · $254 Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?−$220Yes · avg 15¢ → 4¢ · $79 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers−$0Milwaukee Brewers · avg 53¢ → 52¢ · $52

Price-adjusted edge

+3.2 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

1.0

Flagged volume

$76.1k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$20.1k

Last 30 days +$23.2k · $1.16M volume · 2,000 trades · since Jun 22, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$54.9k

Open P&L · 139 positions

−$32.6k

Closed-position win rate

72%

394 closed

Wallet age · markets

124d

542 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	1	1.0	+3.2 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	LOW BUY Team Spirit @ 80¢	$16.1k	80%	62d ago	excluded
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 98¢	$30.0k	98%	106d ago	excluded
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢	$30.0k	97%	111d ago	called

Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffsexcluded

BUY Team Spirit @ 80¢$16.1k

LOW 0x3814…17bc · 62d ago

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY No @ 98¢$30.0k

LOW 0x3814…17bc · 106d ago

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

BUY No @ 96.8¢$30.0k

LOW 0x3814…17bc · 111d ago

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