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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did -41.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-41.0 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$221.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$144.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $5.40M volume · 5,459 trades · since Nov 06, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$595.4k
Open P&L · 69 positions
−$738.9k
Closed-position win rate
71%
202 closed
Wallet age · markets
352d
267 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 0.8 | -41.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Argentina @ 99.8¢ | $24.9k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 44¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY No @ 39¢ | $21.6k | missed |
 Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
 Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner | LOW SELL Team Liquid @ 99.9¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner | LOW BUY Team Liquid @ 63¢ | $23.1k | excluded |
 Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 43¢ | $18.7k | missed |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.1¢ | $32.2k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95.5¢ | $30.1k | called |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 95.5¢ | $11.1k | missed |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢ | $14.5k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x371996…