flying-wheel

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$728.9k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$18.5k

Last 30 days +$0 · $2.53M volume · 842 trades · since Mar 08, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$18.5k

Open P&L · 0 positions

+$0

Closed-position win rate

74%

31 closed

Wallet age · markets

230d

24 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$59.0k	100%	128d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$31.0k	100%	144d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$104.5k 3.4× usual	100%	144d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$139.9k 4.5× usual	100%	167d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$189.6k 6.1× usual	0%	167d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$95.4k 3.1× usual	100%	178d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$20.0k	0%	183d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$20.0k	0%	184d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$23.3k	100%	190d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$23.2k	99%	198d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$23.1k	100%	200d ago	excluded

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$59.0k

LOW flying-wheel · 128d ago

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.5¢$31.0k

LOW flying-wheel · 144d ago

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$104.5k

LOW flying-wheel · 144d ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$139.9k

LOW flying-wheel · 167d ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$189.6k

MED flying-wheel · 167d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$95.4k

LOW flying-wheel · 178d ago

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$20.0k

LOW flying-wheel · 183d ago

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$20.0k

LOW flying-wheel · 184d ago

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$23.3k

LOW flying-wheel · 190d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$23.2k

LOW flying-wheel · 198d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.6¢$23.1k

LOW flying-wheel · 200d ago

Share this record

<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x314896ba4dc34663fc8c283726ca6638ba1ebc30"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x314896ba4dc34663fc8c283726ca6638ba1ebc30.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x314896…