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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -13.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-13.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$24.9k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±33.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$14.6k
Last 30 days −$337 · $1.03M volume · 1,033 trades · since Aug 05, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$13.8k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$814
Closed-position win rate
33%
292 closed
Wallet age · markets
80d
284 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -13.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 13¢ | $14.9k | missed |
 Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-09-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x308178…