themain

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?+$26.8kYes · avg 72¢ → 84¢ · $195.3k Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?+$3,066No · avg 78¢ → 84¢ · $48.4k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?+$572Yes · avg 34¢ → 36¢ · $9,089 Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?+$311No · avg 67¢ → 70¢ · $9,063 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?+$141Yes · avg 41¢ → 42¢ · $8,547 Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?+$287Yes · avg 66¢ → 70¢ · $5,506 Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?+$110Yes · avg 45¢ → 46¢ · $4,421 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?+$15Yes · avg 29¢ → 29¢ · $1,120

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

No · Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing Other side: 0 proven · 0 losing

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$43.9k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$43.1k

Last 30 days +$43.4k · $455.4k volume · 461 trades · since Dec 03, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$24.3k

Open P&L · 19 positions

+$26.3k

Closed-position win rate

87%

38 closed

Wallet age · markets

690d

56 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢	$24.9k	80%	4h ago	pending
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$19.0k	80%	3d ago	pending

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?pending

BUY Yes @ 80¢$24.9k

LOW themain · 4h ago

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?pending

BUY No @ 80¢$19.0k

LOW themain · 3d ago

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