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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +7.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+7.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$871.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$7,185
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.78M volume · 642 trades · since Mar 26, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$15.6k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$7,568
Closed-position win rate
90%
62 closed
Wallet age · markets
212d
62 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +7.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $217.0k 8.9× usual |
excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ | $157.9k 6.5× usual |
excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 97.4¢ | $13.4k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $20.0k | called |
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $89.8k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $28.9k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $35.0k | excluded |
 Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $88.7k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $88.7k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $20.0k | called |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
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