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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -21.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-21.3 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$341.7k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$241.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $869.8k volume · 15 trades · since Jan 10, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$281.2k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$40.0k
Closed-position win rate
100%
1 closed
Wallet age · markets
287d
2 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 0.4 | -21.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | HIGH SELL Yes @ 95.6¢ | $308.3k 15.4× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | MED BUY Yes @ 23¢ | $13.4k | missed |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | MED BUY Yes @ 19¢ | $20.0k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x2e29fc…