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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did +26.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+26.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$115.2k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±43.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1,868
Last 30 days +$0 · $660.4k volume · 62 trades · since Jan 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$3,577
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$3,648
Closed-position win rate
66%
32 closed
Wallet age · markets
637d
33 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +26.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 France vs. England: Team to Win | LOW SELL England @ 99.9¢ | $19.4k | excluded |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | LOW BUY England @ 92¢ | $17.9k | excluded |
 Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 90.6¢ | $14.8k | called |
| Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90.1¢ | $18.0k | missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Spain @ 97¢ | $18.1k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 89¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 74¢ | $10.4k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x2c1174…