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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did -18.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-18.6 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$39.8k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$10.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $421.6k volume · 490 trades · since Jan 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$25.7k
Open P&L · 51 positions
−$34.8k
Closed-position win rate
62%
244 closed
Wallet age · markets
271d
306 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.6 | -31.5 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +7.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 79¢ | $16.0k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $11.7k | called |
 Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Jannik Sinner | LOW BUY Jannik Sinner @ 93¢ | $12.1k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x246d5b…