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What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$149.8k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$12.6k
Last 30 days +$13 · $4.40M volume · 2,045 trades · since Oct 21, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$12.7k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$83
Closed-position win rate
78%
202 closed
Wallet age · markets
369d
192 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
 U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | $36.5k | excluded |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
 Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $52.8k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x22b579…