DEGENKHAN

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -12.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Xi Jinping out before 2027?+$390No · avg 95.3¢ → 96.8¢ · $27.1k Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?−$376No · avg 95¢ → 92.5¢ · $14.5k Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$42No · avg 91.8¢ → 91.5¢ · $13.9k Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?+$5No · avg 97.7¢ → 97.8¢ · $13.3k New pandemic in 2026?+$256No · avg 94.6¢ → 96.6¢ · $12.1k Trump out as President before 2027?+$302No · avg 93.2¢ → 95.8¢ · $11.5k US recession by end of 2026?+$969No · avg 84¢ → 91.5¢ · $11.4k Iran Nuke before 2027?+$122No · avg 94.2¢ → 95.5¢ · $8,982

Price-adjusted edge

-12.0 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.1

Flagged volume

$56.4k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.5 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$111.9k

Last 30 days +$5,385 · $25.04M volume · 99,951 trades · since Sep 12, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$140.4k

Open P&L · 500 positions

−$2,553

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

772d

2823 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	0	0.1	-12.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$25.0k	100%	207d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$19.8k	99%	216d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 88¢	$11.6k	12%	457d ago	missed

Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$25.0k

LOW DEGENKHAN · 207d ago

Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded

BUY No @ 99.1¢$19.8k

LOW DEGENKHAN · 216d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?missed

SELL No @ 88¢$11.6k

LOW DEGENKHAN · 457d ago

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