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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -21.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-21.6 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$168.2k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±41.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$159.4k
Last 30 days +$8,676 · $15.30M volume · 17,987 trades · since Dec 09, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$3.05M
Open P&L · 495 positions
−$1.86M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
319d
1128 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -21.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffs | LOW SELL TEAM VISION @ 59¢ | $47.2k | excluded |
| Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffs | LOW BUY TEAM VISION @ 59¢ | $68.5k | excluded |
| Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner | LOW SELL Team Falcons @ 99.9¢ | $28.2k | excluded |
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 78¢ | $24.3k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x21468a…