0x1fd2…b7f8

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +5.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 24?+$5Yes · avg 67¢ → 80¢ · $32 Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 24?+$2Yes · avg 57¢ → 61¢ · $24

Price-adjusted edge

+5.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$20.4k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.9 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$17.7k

Last 30 days −$377 · $1.31M volume · 6,093 trades · since Oct 29, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$50.2k

Open P&L · 4 positions

+$41

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

360d

1025 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.9	+5.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$20.4k	95%	263d ago	called

Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?called

BUY No @ 95¢$20.4k

LOW 0x1fd2…b7f8 · 263d ago

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