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What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$108.3k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$14.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.21M volume · 199 trades · since Dec 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$16.8k
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$1,829
Closed-position win rate
43%
14 closed
Wallet age · markets
303d
22 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢ | $36.9k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 55¢ | $24.8k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 31¢ | $14.3k | called |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 11¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 17¢ | $11.6k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x1fa35b…