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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did -64.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-64.2 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$14.3k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±48.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$20.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $391.5k volume · 65 trades · since Dec 21, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2,494
Open P&L · 27 positions
−$22.3k
Closed-position win rate
72%
25 closed
Wallet age · markets
308d
51 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -64.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $14.3k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x1cdce0…