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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -97.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-97.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$20.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$6,840
Last 30 days +$0 · $55.9k volume · 130 trades · since Oct 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$5,802
Open P&L · 24 positions
−$1,054
Closed-position win rate
82%
51 closed
Wallet age · markets
360d
75 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -97.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢ | $10.6k | missed |
 US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 95.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x1caf82…