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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.0 wins, so it did -3.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-3.1 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$75.3k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$4,474
Last 30 days +$0 · $675.9k volume · 692 trades · since Mar 10, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$4,680
Open P&L · 46 positions
−$230
Closed-position win rate
54%
160 closed
Wallet age · markets
1324d
202 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -3.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢ | $24.3k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 96.9¢ | $10.9k | missed |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ | $20.1k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x1afbb4…