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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -25.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-25.3 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$35.0k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±30.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$37.5k
Last 30 days −$0 · $1.72M volume · 171 trades · since Dec 23, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$0
Open P&L · 22 positions
−$78.8k
Closed-position win rate
—
0 closed
Wallet age · markets
—
26 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -25.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 21¢ | $15.0k | missed |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 29¢ | $20.0k | missed |
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<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x191391e548f3fab925ce28cc0fc74ef97546b494"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x191391e548f3fab925ce28cc0fc74ef97546b494.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x191391…