0x17d0…8449

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did -11.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-11.1 pts

Called / graded

1/2

Expected from price

1.2

Flagged volume

$176.2k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.5 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$50.0k

Last 30 days +$0 · $652.6k volume · 240 trades · since Nov 24, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$22.7k

Open P&L · 2 positions

−$26.5k

Closed-position win rate

75%

32 closed

Wallet age · markets

334d

34 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	2	1	1.2	-11.1 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance	LOW BUY France @ 60¢	$26.2k	60%	103d ago	missed
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	LOW SELL Argentina @ 99.8¢	$22.1k	0%	104d ago	excluded
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Argentina @ 75¢	$16.6k	75%	104d ago	excluded
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 38¢	$10.9k	62%	104d ago	called
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	LOW SELL Yes @ 66¢	$19.3k	34%	111d ago	excluded
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢	$15.8k	54%	112d ago	excluded
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	LOW SELL Yes @ 25¢	$12.2k	75%	112d ago	excluded
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢	$53.0k 2.9× usual	87%	113d ago	missed

France vs. Spain: Team to Advancemissed

BUY France @ 60¢$26.2k

LOW 0x17d0…8449 · 103d ago

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advanceexcluded

SELL Argentina @ 99.8¢$22.1k

LOW 0x17d0…8449 · 104d ago

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advanceexcluded

BUY Argentina @ 75¢$16.6k

LOW 0x17d0…8449 · 104d ago

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 38¢$10.9k

LOW 0x17d0…8449 · 104d ago

Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?excluded

SELL Yes @ 66¢$19.3k

LOW 0x17d0…8449 · 111d ago

Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?excluded

BUY Yes @ 54¢$15.8k

LOW 0x17d0…8449 · 112d ago

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?excluded

SELL Yes @ 25¢$12.2k

LOW 0x17d0…8449 · 112d ago

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?missed

BUY Yes @ 87¢$53.0k

LOW 0x17d0…8449 · 113d ago

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