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0x17ce…beec

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -12.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-12.0 pts
Called / graded
0/4
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$193.5k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$108.2k
Last 30 days −$3 · $18.72M volume · 30,671 trades · since Jan 07, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$665.6k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$18
Closed-position win rate
62%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
655d
444 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other200.4-19.5 pts
Politics200.1-4.4 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 83¢ $12.7k17% 266d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $30.0k100% 268d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW SELL No @ 78¢ $16.1k22% 282d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 94.7¢ $12.4k5% 282d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 95.1¢ $16.0k5% 282d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 93.3¢ $28.0k93% 284d agocalled
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $19.9k0% 294d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $29.9k100% 323d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW SELL Yes @ 95.8¢ $12.8k4% 361d agomissed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW SELL Yes @ 95.4¢ $15.6k5% 361d agomissed
US government shutdown Saturday?missed
SELL Yes @ 83¢$12.7k
LOW 0x17ce…beec · 266d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$30.0k
LOW 0x17ce…beec · 268d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?missed
SELL No @ 78¢$16.1k
LOW 0x17ce…beec · 282d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 94.7¢$12.4k
LOW 0x17ce…beec · 282d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 95.1¢$16.0k
LOW 0x17ce…beec · 282d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 93.3¢$28.0k
LOW 0x17ce…beec · 284d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$19.9k
LOW 0x17ce…beec · 294d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$29.9k
LOW 0x17ce…beec · 323d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?missed
SELL Yes @ 95.8¢$12.8k
LOW 0x17ce…beec · 361d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?missed
SELL Yes @ 95.4¢$15.6k
LOW 0x17ce…beec · 361d ago

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