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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -10.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-10.7 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$104.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±30.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$11.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $695.1k volume · 1,156 trades · since Jan 09, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$11.8k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$24
Closed-position win rate
46%
248 closed
Wallet age · markets
289d
245 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -10.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25? | LOW SELL Yes @ 88¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 84¢ | $13.1k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 76¢ | $10.4k | called |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 89¢ | $10.3k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 91.9¢ | $12.0k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $12.0k | called |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 65¢ | $11.5k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 58¢ | $10.2k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x16fa9d…