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What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$235.1k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$2,381
Last 30 days +$0 · $698.3k volume · 955 trades · since Mar 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$3,173
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$5,547
Closed-position win rate
94%
94 closed
Wallet age · markets
209d
96 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Trump out as President by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $29.6k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $49.9k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $79.8k | excluded |
 Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $25.8k | excluded |
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