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Neon-Gargoyle

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?−$177Yes · avg 86¢ → 84¢ · $13.2k
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$32.4k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$17.2k
Last 30 days +$1,894 · $1.12M volume · 1,331 trades · since Dec 31, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$17.5k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$177
Closed-position win rate
57%
143 closed
Wallet age · markets
297d
131 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.6¢ $12.4k1% 199d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ $20.0k99% 199d agoexcluded

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