bearbees2

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?+$540No · avg 95.9¢ → 97.7¢ · $30.6k Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?+$159No · avg 91.7¢ → 94¢ · $6,621 Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?+$125No · avg 96.4¢ → 98.5¢ · $5,970 Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?+$802No · avg 82¢ → 96.5¢ · $5,476 Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?+$67No · avg 95.9¢ → 97.2¢ · $4,887 Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?+$121No · avg 93.9¢ → 97¢ · $3,878 Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?+$31No · avg 95.5¢ → 96.4¢ · $3,593 · 1 proven with, 0 against Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?+$577No · avg 63¢ → 75¢ · $3,486

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$202.2k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$37.5k

Last 30 days +$2,162 · $3.24M volume · 6,772 trades · since Dec 15, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$36.8k

Open P&L · 43 positions

+$1,620

Closed-position win rate

83%

251 closed

Wallet age · markets

313d

270 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$61.9k 2.1× usual	100%	129d ago	excluded
GTA VI released before June 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$33.3k	0%	149d ago	excluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$12.9k	99%	152d ago	excluded
GTA VI released before June 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$26.3k	100%	157d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.3¢	$20.1k	98%	196d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$47.7k	99%	199d ago	excluded

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$61.9k

LOW bearbees2 · 129d ago

GTA VI released before June 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$33.3k

LOW bearbees2 · 149d ago

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?excluded

BUY No @ 98.9¢$12.9k

LOW bearbees2 · 152d ago

GTA VI released before June 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$26.3k

LOW bearbees2 · 157d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 98.3¢$20.1k

LOW bearbees2 · 196d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$47.7k

LOW bearbees2 · 199d ago

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