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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -27.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-27.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$36.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±44.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1,535
Last 30 days +$0 · $297.9k volume · 17 trades · since Jan 16, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$200
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$1,319
Closed-position win rate
50%
4 closed
Wallet age · markets
281d
11 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -27.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 27¢ | $11.3k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 13¢ | $11.3k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $14.2k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x129e64…