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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -9.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-9.8 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$120.9k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±29.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$11.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $379.2k volume · 302 trades · since Mar 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$5,360
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$737
Closed-position win rate
92%
12 closed
Wallet age · markets
215d
12 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -9.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $25.7k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 90.2¢ | $16.2k | missed |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ | $40.1k | excluded |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $38.9k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x11648c…