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+$457No · avg 86¢ → 94.5¢ · $5,314+$38No · avg 89¢ → 93.5¢ · $820+$59No · avg 84¢ → 91¢ · $819+$42No · avg 85¢ → 90¢ · $816−$69No · avg 95¢ → 87¢ · $786−$36No · avg 83¢ → 79¢ · $715+$28Yes · avg 11¢ → 12¢ · $638−$0Yes · avg 9.5¢ → 9.5¢ · $426
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did +9.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+9.4 pts
Called / graded
3/4
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$194.0k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$175.6k
Last 30 days +$3,637 · $13.48M volume · 53,440 trades · since Feb 28, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.25M
Open P&L · 62 positions
+$289
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
239d
1957 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 3 | 2.6 | +9.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-27? | MED BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $34.1k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $16.9k | called |
 UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Islam Makhachev @ 99.9¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Islam Makhachev @ 75¢ | $14.3k | called |
 Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $14.0k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $11.9k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | MED SELL Yes @ 68¢ | $47.6k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $30.4k 2.1× usual |
called |
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