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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did +20.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+20.5 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$26.0k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±30.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$170.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $9.27M volume · 11,272 trades · since Nov 15, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$170.3k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$220
Closed-position win rate
47%
337 closed
Wallet age · markets
708d
323 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -16.1 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | +57.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 84¢ | $14.4k | missed |
 US recession in 2025? | LOW SELL Yes @ 57¢ | $11.6k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x0ced4f…