taincap

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did +29.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?+$769No · avg 84¢ → 95¢ · $6,618 Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?+$505No · avg 86¢ → 96.4¢ · $4,486 Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?+$364No · avg 75¢ → 90¢ · $2,243

Price-adjusted edge

+29.0 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

1.4

Flagged volume

$69.0k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.1 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$15.8k

Last 30 days −$121 · $249.1k volume · 55 trades · since Nov 13, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$19.4k

Open P&L · 6 positions

−$3,610

Closed-position win rate

96%

28 closed

Wallet age · markets

345d

34 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	2	2	1.4	+29.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢	$17.0k	98%	135d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢	$16.8k	99%	159d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢	$10.9k	99%	194d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢	$13.9k	71%	196d ago	called
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	LOW BUY No @ 71¢	$10.3k	71%	196d ago	called

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded

BUY No @ 98.5¢$17.0k

LOW taincap · 135d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?excluded

BUY No @ 98.7¢$16.8k

LOW taincap · 159d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.2¢$10.9k

LOW taincap · 194d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?called

BUY Yes @ 71¢$13.9k

LOW taincap · 196d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?called

BUY No @ 71¢$10.3k

LOW taincap · 196d ago

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