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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did -7.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-7.5 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
2.3
Flagged volume
$84.4k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$71.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.39M volume · 125 trades · since Mar 07, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$12.4k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$55.8k
Closed-position win rate
50%
32 closed
Wallet age · markets
231d
37 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.7 | -36.6 pts |
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | +21.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 6.8¢ | $16.2k | missed |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 76¢ | $23.4k 2.0× usual |
missed |
 Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $12.0k | called |
 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ | $11.4k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $10.1k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x08386b…