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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did -21.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-21.0 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.4
Flagged volume
$162.4k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±30.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$58.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $863.0k volume · 361 trades · since Mar 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$58.2k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
56%
134 closed
Wallet age · markets
228d
131 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.4 | -21.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will England win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $14.7k | called |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW SELL Yes @ 27¢ | $15.1k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90.9¢ | $36.9k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $37.3k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 78¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
 Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 84¢ | $16.7k | missed |
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