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What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$272.0k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$12.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.15M volume · 660 trades · since Mar 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$13.7k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$508
Closed-position win rate
79%
29 closed
Wallet age · markets
224d
30 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $69.9k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢ | $74.0k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | $52.7k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 98.4¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 94.4¢ | $18.4k | called |
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