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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did +19.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+19.1 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$56.6k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$48.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.27M volume · 580 trades · since Oct 06, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$32.1k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$5,555
Closed-position win rate
31%
129 closed
Wallet age · markets
748d
138 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | +19.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 19¢ | $16.1k | called |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 19¢ | $24.8k | called |
 Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Argentina @ 99.9¢ | $15.7k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x04c04a…