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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -29.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-29.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$11.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±45.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$12.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $268.5k volume · 62 trades · since Mar 26, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$11.5k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$534
Closed-position win rate
61%
18 closed
Wallet age · markets
578d
17 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -29.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US recession in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 71¢ | $11.8k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x0485d2…