0x02fa…04d4

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -42.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-42.1 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.4

Flagged volume

$149.5k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$13.8k

Last 30 days −$9,887 · $2.17M volume · 269 trades · since Apr 06, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$29.2k

Open P&L · 28 positions

−$15.0k

Closed-position win rate

60%

73 closed

Wallet age · markets

201d

94 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	0	0.4	-42.1 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	LOW SELL Argentina @ 38¢	$11.5k	62%	96d ago	excluded
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Argentina @ 41¢	$12.3k	41%	96d ago	missed
France vs. England: Team to Win	LOW SELL England @ 96¢	$13.0k	4%	97d ago	excluded
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 58¢	$17.7k	42%	100d ago	missed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 42¢	$12.9k	58%	100d ago	called
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED SELL Yes @ 21¢	$71.1k 5.5× usual	79%	117d ago	called
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 7.9¢	$11.1k	8%	131d ago	missed

Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advanceexcluded

SELL Argentina @ 38¢$11.5k

LOW 0x02fa…04d4 · 96d ago

Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancemissed

BUY Argentina @ 41¢$12.3k

LOW 0x02fa…04d4 · 96d ago

France vs. England: Team to Winexcluded

SELL England @ 96¢$13.0k

LOW 0x02fa…04d4 · 97d ago

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

SELL Yes @ 58¢$17.7k

LOW 0x02fa…04d4 · 100d ago

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 42¢$12.9k

LOW 0x02fa…04d4 · 100d ago

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 21¢$71.1k

MED 0x02fa…04d4 · 117d ago

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

BUY Yes @ 7.9¢$11.1k

LOW 0x02fa…04d4 · 131d ago

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