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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did +6.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -3.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+6.7 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
2.7
Flagged volume
$106.7k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$11k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance at 52¢) and the edge is -3.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
50% vs 52% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 60% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$3,256
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.81M volume · 2,545 trades · since Jun 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$279.3k
Open P&L · 55 positions
−$824.5k
Closed-position win rate
48%
61 closed
Wallet age · markets
131d
136 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 3 | 2.7 | +6.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 54¢ | $16.1k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 56¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $12.1k | called |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 46¢ | $13.9k | missed |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY United States @ 55¢ | $11.0k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 53¢ | $10.4k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 52¢ | $20.8k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 56¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
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